习惯形成下消费理性的理论探讨与实证检验

Theoretical Discussion and Empirical Test on Consumption Rationality under Habit Formation

习惯形成类似于一种谨慎行为,它制约消费增长,而理性消费者的习惯形成对消费增长的抑制效应更强。基于习惯形成理论框架下提出本研究范围内消费理性的含义与检验标准,并实证考察中国城乡居民的消费理性,以此为缓解居民习惯形成、促进消费增长的政策建议提供依据。研究结果显示:比较来看,在我国经济转轨后与着力改善供求失衡的经济结构前的1995-2014年这20年间,城镇居民消费具有理性,而农村居民消费总体不具有理性。这一结论也为近年来消费增长缓慢、居民对总需求政策不敏感做出了一种解释。

Habit formation is similar to a prudent consuming behavior and restricts consumption growth,but a rational consumer’s habit formation has a stronger inhibitory effect on consumption growth. Based on the theory of habit formation, this paper puts forward the definition and test criteria for consumption rationality in the scope of this study, and empirically examines urban and rural residents’ consuming behavior in China,in order to provide policy proposals for alleviating the residents’ habits and promoting the growth of consumption. The results show that the consumption of urban residents is rational, while their counterparts of rural residents’ consumption is irrational in the 20 years during 1995-2014, that is, after China’s transition economy and before improving the imbalance structure between supply and demand, which explains the slow increase of consumption and residents’ insensitivity to gross demand.