三明市大气O3水平与居民慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡关系时间序列分析

A time-series analysis on association between O3 concentration and the mortality of chronic respiratory diseases in Sanming City

目的探讨福建省三明市大气污染物臭氧(O3)浓度对居民每日慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。方法收集三明市2016—2017年居民每日慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡资料、大气主要污染物日均浓度资料和气象因素资料。采用时间序列的广义相加模型(GAM),拟合大气O3浓度与居民每日慢性呼吸系统死亡之间的暴露-反应关系模型,并进一步建立双污染物模型,以检验O3浓度升高对三明市居民每日慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡效应是否受到其他大气污染物影响。结果O3浓度与三明市居民每日慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡风险存在统计学意义(P<0.05),O3(lag03)浓度每升高10μg/m3,居民每日慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加4.09%(95%CI:0.94%~7.35%)。建立的双污染物模型中,分别加入SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5和CO,O3对居民每日慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险效应仍均具有统计学意义。结论三明市大气O3浓度升高可能导致居民每日慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加。

Objective To explore the association between ambient ozone (O 3) level and population mortality of chronic respiratory diseases in Sanming City. Methods The daily death data of chronic respiratory diseases, daily average concentration of atmospheric pollutants, and meteorological data from 2016 to 2017 were collected.A time-series generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship between O 3 concentration and daily chronic respiratory death in residents. It was also tested whether the relationship was influenced by other air pollutants using a double-pollutants model. Results O 3 concentration was significantly associated with the daily risk of death from chronic respiratory disease in Sanming city( P <0.05). For every 10 μg/m 3 increase in O 3(lag03) concentration, the daily risk of death from chronic respiratory diseases increased by 4.09%.(95% CI : 0.94%- 7.35%). Adding the other air pollutants (SO 2, NO 2, PM 10 , PM 2.5 and CO) into the double-pollutants model, the effects of O 3 with the association of extra risk of death of chronic respiratory diseases were still significant. Conclusion The level of O 3 could significantly increase the risk of daily death from chronic respiratory diseases in Sanming City.