1961-2016年新疆哈密参考作物蒸散量变化与成因分析

Variation of reference crop evapotranspiration and climate influence factors in Hami of Xinjiang during 1961-2016

基于新疆哈密地区5个气象站点1961-2016年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith模型、趋势分析、累积距平和Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析其参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明:近56年来,哈密地区年参考作物蒸散量均值以-20.57mm/10a的速率减少,哈密、淖毛湖、伊吾和红柳河4地年参考作物蒸散量呈减少趋势,倾向率分别为-65.94mm/10a,-32.77mm/10a,-11.94mm/10a,-4.99mm/10a,巴里坤年参考作物蒸散量以12.79mm/10a的速率增加。哈密四季参考作物蒸散量以夏季最多,春、秋季次之,冬季最少。哈密年参考作物蒸散量于20世纪80年代以来发生突变,但各站点存在明显差异,红柳河、巴里坤、淖毛湖和伊吾突变点分别为2009、2003、1996和1986年。相关分析表明,哈密地区年参考作物蒸散量主要受风速、相对湿度和降水量的影响,平均风速下降、相对湿度和降水量增加共同导致过去56年哈密地区参考作物蒸散量呈减少的趋势。

Based on the long-term climatic data from 5 typical weather stations in Hami, Xinjiang during 1961 to 2016, several methods such as Penman-Monteith model, trend analysis, cumulative anomaly and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration( ET 0 ) change and climate influence factors in Hami since the last 56 years. The results show that: the average annual ET 0 in Hami showed a decreasing trend during the latest 56 years, and the tendency rate was -20.57mm/10a. The annual ET 0 in Hami, Chuomaohu, Yiwu and Hongliuhe showed the decreasing trend, and the tendency rates were -65.94 mm/10a,-32.77 mm/10a ,-11.94 mm/10a,-4.99 mm/10a, respectively. The annual ET 0 in Balikun showed an inecreasing trend, and the increasing rates was -12.79 mm/10a. The annual ET 0 in Hami is the largest in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and the least in winter. The annual ET 0 in Hami had changed abruptly since the 1980s, but there were obvious differences among the meteorological stations. The mutation points of Hongliuhe, Balikun, Chuomaohu and Yiwu were 2009, 2003, 1996 and 1986 respectively. Correlation analysis showed that the annual ET 0 in Hami was mainly affected by wind speed, relative humidity and precipitation, decreased mean wind speed, increased relative humidity and precipitation together led to a decrease trend in annual ET 0 over the past 56 years in Hami.