城市越江隧道交通事故特征统计分析研究

Research on Statistical Analysis of Traffic Accident Characteristics in the Urban River-crossing Tunnel

为掌握城市越江隧道交通事故发生的规律和深入挖掘对事故严重性有影响的内在因素,以上海市10条越江隧道发生的交通事故为例归纳总结越江隧道事故规律,并构建有序Logit模型,对影响越江隧道事故严重程度的因素进行分析。结果发现:在时间上,工作日越江隧道的事故数明显高于周末且主要集中在早晚高峰时段;在空间上,隧道事故区段分布与隧道环境特征有较强相关性关系,外环隧道、翔殷路隧道和延安东路隧道为事故主要多发路段;在事故形态和等级上,主要为追尾碰撞和侧面碰撞,绝大部分为轻微事故;货车、3辆及以上事故车辆、凌晨、周末、限速、隧道长度与越江隧道事故严重程度有显著相关性。研究结果对城市越江隧道的运营管理和交通事故的预防具有指导意义。

In order to grasp the regularity of traffic accidents that have occurred in urban cross-river tunnels and dig out the latent factors which have influence on the severity of the accident,this paper employs the traffic accident data obtained from 10 cross-river tunnels in Shanghai to examine the characteristics of the temporal,spatial,vehicle type and modality distributions of traffic accidents using statistical analysis,and an ordered Logit model is constructed to determine the correlation between latent factors and injury severity of the accidents.The result shows that the accidents in the weekdays is significantly higher than the weekends and mainly concentrates in peak periods.In space,tunnel accident section distribution and tunnel environmental characteristics have a strong correlation.Outer ring tunnel,Xiang Yin Road tunnel and Yan’an East Road tunnel are the high frequency section of traffic accident.,the majority of them are minor accidents,mainly for rear-end collision and side impact.The factors(such as truck,3 and above accidents vehicles,the early morning,weekend,speed limit,tunnel length and the river tunnel accident severity)have a significant correlation.The research results are instructive to the operation management and prevention of traffic accidents in urban cross-river tunnels.