基于Adaptive Lasso方法的合肥市商品房价格影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Commercial Housing Prices in Hefei City Based on Adaptive Lasso Method

随着合肥市经济的快速发展,商品住宅平均价格持续走高,研究合肥房价背后的主要影响因素显得十分必要。本文通过定性分析选取八个可能影响合肥商品住宅平均价格的指标因素,即合肥市GDP、城镇人口、城镇居民可支配收入、商品住宅投资比重、商品住宅间缺口、商品零售价格指数、贷款利率、房地产开发投资。再结合上述因素2003至2018年近16年数据,运用一般最小二乘方法、逐步回归方法、Lasso方法以及Adaptive Lasso方法进行实证研究并加以比较,定量得出影响合肥商品住宅平均价格的影响因素,同时试着给出相关结论和建议。

With the rapid development of Hefei s economy,the average price of commercial housing of Hefei keeps rising.It is necessary to study the main influencing factors behind housing prices.Through qualitative analysis,eight factors affecting the average price of commercial housing in Hefei are obtained,namely,GDP,urban population,disposable income of urban residents,proportion of investment in commercial housing,gap between commercial housing,commercial retail price index,loan interest rate and investment in real estate development.Combined with the data of the last 16 years from 2003 to 2018,this paper makes an empirical study and compares these factors by using the general least squares method,stepwise regression method,Lasso variable selection method and Adaptive Lasso variable selection method,and obtains the influencing factors of the average price of commercial housing in Hefei quantitatively.At the same time,it tries to draw relevant conclusions and give some suggestions.