“海上丝绸之路”倡议下山东与台湾贸易潜力研究

A study of the Trade Potential Between Shandong and Taiwan Under the Initiative of the Maritime Silk Road

文章基于贸易结合度指数和扩展贸易引力模型,以“海上丝绸之路”战略为研究视角,运用2006-2016年山东与台湾地区双边货物贸易数据,对双方的贸易潜力进行实证分析。研究结果表明:“海上丝绸之路”战略下,山东与台湾地区间的贸易规模和贸易潜力均在不断扩大;但从贸易平衡角度来看,山东一直处于贸易逆差地位,且逆差额比较大,双边贸易发展不平衡。此外,结合贸易结合度指数可知,近年来双方贸易紧密程度在呈逐渐加强的态势在发展;在贸易潜力方面,山东与台湾两地区间的贸易潜力值围绕在均值0.56上下波动,结果表明,山东与台湾两地区间具有巨大的贸易潜力,但目前尚未得到充分发挥,未来双方存在进一步发展的必要性且提升空间很大。研究结论将对山东在“海上丝绸之路”战略下,更好地开展新一轮“走出去”、推动新旧动能转换综合试验区构建以及如何实现同台湾的共赢合作等具有启示意义。

Based on trade integration index and extended gravity model,this article starts from the perspective of the“Maritime Silk Road”,and uses bilateral trade data of Shandong and Taiwan between 2006 and 2016 to empirically analyze the bilateral trade potential. The research indicates:under the“Maritime Silk Road”initiative,the trade scale and potential between Shandong and Taiwan are expanding continuously. However,from the perspective of trade balance,Shandong has been in the trade deficit,and the deficit amount is relatively large,the bilateral trade development is unbalanced. Besides,combined with the trade index,the results shows that the bilateral trade intensity has been gradually strengthening in recent years;in terms of trade potential,the trade potential between Shandong and Taiwan fluctuates around the mean value of 0.56,which shows that Shandong and Taiwan have great trade potential but it has not been fully developed,and there is a need for further development on both sides in the future and the room for improvement is great. The findings will have implications for Shandong province under the“Maritime Silk Road”initiative to better carry out a new round of“going global”,to promote the construction of comprehensive test area for conversion of old and new kinetic energy,and to how to realize win-win cooperation with Taiwan province.