黔中地区露营气象指数预报方法初探

Preliminary study on forecasting method of camping meteorological index in central Guizhou

露营和徒步旅游对天气预报有迫切的需求。用1988—2017年花溪气象站30a观测到的逐日气温、风速、相对湿度和降雨量资料代表黔中地区,分析了花溪的气候背景和温湿指数特征,应用影响露营和徒步气象要素的分布概率等统计资料,得到了黔中地区的露营气象预报指数。将黔中地区的露营气象指数分成4个等级,即非常适宜、适宜、不适宜和非常不适宜。按照降水量多少、风力大小、温湿指数3个要素建立露营气象指数预报模型。由于预报模型所使用的气象资料为黔中地区,对于不同的地区来说是不尽相同的,各区域必须根据本地化应用的是需要进行标准的划分。

Weather forecasting is in urgent need for camping and hiking. The data of daily temperature,wind speed,relative humidity and rainfall observed at Huaxi Meteorological Station from 1988 to 2017 were used to represent the central Guizhou area. The climate background and the characteristics of temperature and humidity index of Huaxi were analyzed. The statistical data such as the distribution probability of Meteorological factors of camping and hiking was used to get camping meteorological index of Guizhou Province. The camping meteorological index of Guizhou Province wass divided into 4 grades,namely very suitable,suitable,unsuitable and very unsuitable. According to the precipitation,wind power and temperature and humidity index,the camping weather index prediction model was established. Because the meteorological data used in the forecasting model are central Guizhou,which are different for different regions,each region must be classified according to local application criteria.