崛起国如何争取国际支持：兼论中国的发展中国家外交

How Rising Power Wins International Support:An Analysis on China’s Developing Country Diplomacy

文章主要研究在崛起加速阶段,崛起国如何应对主导国的楔子战略和其他国家的对冲策略,从而为成功崛起赢得更多国际支持。中国在崛起过程中争取更多国际支持的主要对象是发展中国家群体,但是受到美国加大对华遏制力度的影响,一些国家采取了“安全上靠美国、经济上靠中国”的对冲策略,一方面增加了中国的经济负担,另一方面加大了对中国的安全利益损害,给中国崛起的周边环境带来巨大挑战。文章提出,建立区分敌友、区分亲疏的外交理念,有助于提高中国外交行为的可预测性,增加中国在广大发展中国家中的战略信誉,从而降低他国对中国崛起的战略疑虑和威胁认知,为中国崛起争取更多国际支持。区分敌友、区分亲疏是相互联系和补充的关系,区分敌友可以向外界表明中国外交的底线意识和维护国家核心利益的决心,区分亲疏可以防止区分敌友带来的国家间关系“非敌即友”的两极化弊端,防止简单地通过硬实力解决国家间问题。文章通过其他国家对中国崛起的态度不同、对中国安全利益重视程度的不同,以及与中国存在领土争议但态度不同等情况,展示了区分敌友、区分亲疏的理念是如何帮助中国正确处理与部分国家的外交分歧,既没有因为一味忍让而导致自身利益遭受更大损失,也没有因为特定条件下区分敌友的坚决主张而失去更多国家的国际支持。

This article considers how arising power responds to hegemon’s wedge strategy and other states’ hedging strategy as the pace of its rise increases As China makes its rise,its primary target group for international support is developing countries However,some developing countries adopt a dual strategy by relying security provision and economic gain separately from US and China This has increased China’s economic burden,while further damaging China’s security interests,generating tremendous challenges for China’s effort to win more international support forits rise This article suggests a strategy of distinguishing friend and foe and differentiating close and remote relations between states,which can increase the predictability and strategic reputation of China and hence mitigate strategic doubts and perception of threat among developing countries,thereby winning China international support for its rise Distinguishing friend and foe and differentiating close and remote relations are interconnected and complementary in that the former demonstrates the bottom line thinking with a view to resolutely upholding China’s core interests,and the latter helps preventing a simplistic distinction of states being either friends or enemy and too much reliance on hard forces in handling international issues This paper compares how such concept is reflected in China’s developing country diplomacy according to the different attitudes of states towards China’s rise,different levels of recognition of China’s national interests,and the different attitudes of states with territorial disputes with China,and hence forth tests whether China’s international support is thus expanded.