恩格尔系数与居民收入——扩展Working-Leser模型研究

The Engel’s Coefficient and Resident Income: A Study with Augmented Working-Leser Model

文章以中国1980~2016年的城镇和农村数据为样本,从时间维度探讨恩格尔定律在中国的适用性及恩格尔系数变动的影响因素。基于Working-Leser模型的研究结果表明,恩格尔系数与收入水平之间呈负相关关系。在此基础上,引入食品价格构建的扩展Working-Leser模型也支持了恩格尔定律在中国的适用性,表现为恩格尔系数随居民收入上升而下降,而且食品价格与恩格尔系数显著正相关,若纳入其他控制变量,收入水平和食品价格对恩格尔系数的影响有所弱化。进一步的研究表明,样本期内中国居民家庭恩格尔系数大多数年份下降,但城镇和农村恩格尔系数变动表现出不同的分布特征,二者受不同因素的驱动。GDP增速、收入与消费水平对恩格尔系数变动具有反向作用,而食品价格、人口城镇化率、第一产业份额对恩格尔系数变动具有同向影响。

With a sample of urban and rural data of China from 1980 to 2016, this paper studies the applicability of Engel’s law in China and the influence factors of the change of Engel’s coefficient. Based on the Working-Leser model, the Engel’s coefficient is negatively correlated to the resident’s income. An augmented Working-Leser model is proposed and the results show that Engel’s law is applicable in China, indicating the Engle’s coefficient decreases along with the income growth. Food price has a significant positive correlation with the Engel’s coefficient. If other control variables are included, the impact of resident income and food price on the Engel’s coefficient will be weakened. A further study revealed that the Engel’s coefficient of Chinese households decreased in most of the sample period, but the changes of urban and rural Engel’s coefficients exhibit some different characteristics, which are driven by different factors respectively. Generally, the GDP growth rate, income and consumption level have negative effects on the change of Engel’s coefficient, while the food prices, urbanization rate of population and share of primary industry have positive effects on the change of Engel’s coefficient.