水电工程围堰度汛应急管理系统脆弱性研究

Study on Vulnerability of Flood Emergency Management System for Cofferdam of Hydropower Project

基于围堰度汛应急管理系统模糊性和不确定性特点,通过灰色聚类理论对应急管理风险进行分析.以围堰度汛应急管理三维结构关系,建立围堰度汛应急管理系统"攻击—防御"指标体系,运用各灰类白化权函数计算灰色隶属度构建灰色评价矩阵,并结合各指标权重得到整体系统和防御性指标脆弱性.评价结果与实际符合较好,验证了该方法的有效性.

Based on the characteristics of ambiguity and uncertainty of the coping system, the emergency management risk is analyzed by grey clustering theory. The three-dimensional structural relationship of emergency management is established, and the "attack-defense" index system of the cofferdam degree and emergency management system is established. The grey evaluation matrix is calculated by using the grey-whitening weight function to construct the gray evaluation matrix, and the weight of each index is combined to obtain the whole system and defensive indicator vulnerability. The evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual ones, and the effectiveness of the method is verified.