隧道结构可靠度量化方法及经济决策分析

Tunnel Structural Reliability Quantification Method and Economic Decision Analysis

隧道作为地下工程面临着许多不确定性问题,简单采用安全系数K来反映这些问题是粗糙且不完善的,而用概率来描述其可靠性即科学合理又能得出定量指标,便于开展决策分析.本文从结构可靠度分析基本原理、隧道计算模型、极限状态方程的建立、结构可靠度分析中参数的分布形式及可靠度计算方法对隧道结构可靠度研究做了综述,并指出隧道可靠度分析应结合隧道的使用期限,提出可结合当前BIM技术对重点部位进行反馈,精准进行症结控制和消缺,并提供经济性决策.

Tunnel construction is an important project in underground engineering, which is facing a lot of uncertainty problems. It is rough and imperfect of simply using the safety factor K to reflect these problems. Using probability to describe its reliability is scientific and reasonable and can get quantitative index, which can conduct decision analysis. The basic principle, calculation model, establishment of limit state equation, parameters distribution in structural reliability analysis and the reliability calculation method were analyzed in this paper, to review the reliability of tunnel structure. It was pointed out that tunnel reliability analysis should be combined with tunnel life, and considered the influence of surrounding rock creep effects and materials cracking effects. It can be provided that be combined with current BIM technology, to feedback those important parts, which can control crux and eliminate precisely.