近50多年来淮河流域气候水分盈亏时空变化

Spatial and temporal changes of climatic and water deficit in the Huaihe River Basin over past 50 years

水分盈亏是区域干湿气候划分的重要依据。基于淮河流域63个气象台站1957—2014年逐日观测数据,运用累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变分析、Morlet小波分析及ArcGIS反权重空间插值法,结合Penman-Monteith蒸散计算模型获得淮河流域水分盈亏量的周期特征、突变特征及其时空分布特征,并分析其主要影响因子。结果表明:(1)水分盈亏月变化基本符合5月最低,7月最高。(2)从季节分布来看,水分亏缺面积秋季>春季>冬季>夏季,亏缺程度春季最强。从平均年水分盈亏量分布来看,水分盈亏量由南向北递减。且不论季节还是年状况,山地及河流对区域水分盈亏量的南北递减存在滞后作用。(3)从各因子气候倾向率的时空分布来看,江苏东南部、山东西部、河南大部、湖北中部水分盈亏量变化的主导因子为潜在蒸散量,其他区域的主导因子为降雨量。(4)淮河流域水分盈亏量存在周期特征,第一主周期为10a。

Water deficit is an important basis for regional wet and dry climates.Based on daily observation data of 63 meteorological stations in Huaihe River Basin from 1957 to 2014,the cumulative departure,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and ArcGIS inverse distance weight spatial interpolation were used to calculate the water deficit in the Huaihe River Basin periodic characteristics and temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and to analyze the main influencing factors.The results show that:(1)The distribution of water deficit in the region basically meets the lowest in May and the highest in July.(2)According to the seasonal distribution,the area proportion of water deficit sequencially as follows autum,spring,winter,and summer,the strongest in spring.According to the distribution of muti-average water deficit,water deficit decreases from south to north.Regardless of season or muti-average status,there is a lagging effect of mountain and river on the north-south decreasing of water deficit.(3)According to the temporal-spatial distribution of climatic propensity factors of various factors,in southeastern of Jiangsu,western of Shandong,most areas of Henan,and the middle Hubei,the predominant factor of the variation of water deficit is evapotranspiration while the dominant factor of other regions is rainfall.(4)The water deficit in the Huaihe river basin has periodic characteristics,and the first main cycle is 10 years.