双支柱框架下利率“两轨合一轨”与宏观金融政策调控——基于动态随机一般均衡分析

Interest Rate “Two Tracks in One” and Macro-financial Policy Regulation and Control under the Framework of Two Pillars:Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis

构建带有利率双轨和利率并轨情况的DSGE模型,研究在双支柱框架下利率"两轨合一轨"过程中,宏观金融政策对经济的影响机制和效果。分析表明:商业银行在取消利率管制后采用更具竞争性的利率吸收存款,利率传导渠道更为顺畅,市场利率的调控政策能更深度地影响经济动态;利率并轨时,宽松的贷款价值比和存款准备金利率激励商业银行更积极地发放贷款,但存款利率降低相对较少,对宏观经济的促进作用降低;随着利率市场化程度的提高,存款管制利率冲击对宏观经济的影响逐渐增强;利率并轨后,逐步降低存款准备金率,市场利率传导效果更好;当发生利率冲击时,利率并轨在短期内加剧社会福利损失;面对贷款价值比冲击和存款准备金利率冲击,利率并轨可以有效改善社会福利水平。

This paper constructs a DSGE model with interest rate dual track and interest rate merger,and studies the impact mechanism and effect of macro-financial policy on economy in the process of interest rate "two track integration" under the Dual-Pillar framework.The analysis shows that after the deregulation of interest rate,commercial banks adopt more competitive interest rate to absorb deposits,the transmission channel of interest rate is smoother,and the regulation policy of market interest rate can influence economic dynamics more deeply.When interest rates are merged,loose loan value ratio and deposit reserve interest rate encourage commercial banks to lend more actively.However,the deposit interest rate decreases relatively little,which weakens the macro-economic promotion.With the rise of interest rate marketization,the impact of deposit control interest rate shocks on the real economy gradually strengthens.After the interest rate merges,the deposit reserve rate is gradually reduced,and the transmission effect of market interest rate is better.When interest rate shocks occur,the combination of interest rates will aggravate the loss of social welfare in the short term.Facing the impact of loan-to-value ratio and deposit reserve interest rate,the combination of interest rates can effectively improve the level of social welfare.