新中国70年人口变迁:回顾与展望

Population Development in 70 Years of New China: Retrospect and Prospect

新中国70年来,我国人口总量由驱动增长向惯性增长转变,生育水平由世代增长向世代收缩转变,人口结构由年轻型向年老型转变,人口分布由农村为主向城镇为主转变,年轻人口的受教育水平已经进入高收入国家行列,国民健康水平已经迈入中等偏上收入国家的上游水平。未来,我国人口将长期负增长,还会迎来一个快速老龄化的特殊时期,城镇人口也将迎来负增长,科学技术对人口的影响将更加突出。建议加强人口发展的基础性和前瞻性研究,完善生命登记系统和人口监测制度,进一步完善生育政策,健全生育支持体系。

Over the past 70 years, China's total population has changed from driving growth to inertial growth, the fertility level has changed from generation-to-generation contraction, the population structure has changed from young to old, the population distribution has changed from rural to urban, and the education level of the young population has entered the ranks of high-income countries and national health care. The degree of well-being has entered the upstream level of the upper middle- income countries. In the future, China's population will have a long-term negative growth, and will usher in a special period of rapid aging. Urban population will also usher in a negative growth, and the impact of science and technology on the population will be more prominent. It is suggested that basic and prospective research on population development be strengthened , life registration system be advanced, population monitoring system be strengthened, fertility policy be further improved and fertility support system be upgraded.