传染病综合指数预测研究

Application of infectious disease index to prediction of infectious diseases

目的应用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测传染病风险,计算传染病综合指数(IDI),为公众提供传染病风险预报。方法收集珠海市2014年第1周至2018年第14周流感样病例、手足口病、其他感染性腹泻资料和2016年第1周至2018年第14周布雷图指数资料,分别建立ARIMA模型预测传染病风险指数,并采用熵权法分析4类传染病权重,计算IDI;以珠海市2018年第15—19周4种传染病指标进行验证。结果预测期间处于夏季,则IDI=ROUND(0.33×流感样病例比例风险指数+0.47×手足口病发病率风险指数+0.10×其他感染性腹泻发病率风险指数+0.10×布雷图指数风险指数)。预测2018年第15—19周珠海市全市和香洲区IDI均为2(较安全),斗门区和金湾区IDI均为1(安全)。第15—19周全部风险值一致率分别为97.50%、95.00%、97.50%、85.00%和77.50%。结论IDI模型可用于传染病流行风险的短期预报。

Objective To establish a prediction model for infectious disease index(IDI)by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and to provide forcast of infectious diseases to the public.Methods The data of the percentage of influenza-like illness(ILI),the incidence rates of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)and other infectious diarrhea(OID)from the 1st week of 2014 to the 14th week of 2018,and Breteau index(BI)from the 1st week of 2016 to the 14th week of 2018 were collected.ARIMA models were built to predict the risk indicators of ILI,HFMD,OID and BI.The weights of the four indicators were evaluated seasonally by the entropy weight method.Then the IDI was calculated and the data of ILI,HFMD,OID and BI from 15th to 19th week in 2018 was used for verification.Results The forecast was in summer,so IDI=ROUND(0.33×risk index of ILI percentage+0.47×risk index of HFMD incidence+0.10×risk index of OID incidence+0.10×risk index of BI).The predicted IDI would be 2(less safe)in the whole city and Xiangzhou District,and 1(safe)in Doumen District and Jinwan District.The consistency rates of IDI prediction was 97.50%,95.00%,97.50%,85.00%and 77.50%from 15th to 19th week in 2018,respectively.Conclusion It was feasible to use IDI for short-term risk prediction of infectious diseases.