移动支付背景下我国货币乘数影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting Chinese Money Multiplier on the Background of Mobile Payment

传统货币银行理论认为流通中的货币数量受到人们支付习惯的影响。在电子信息技术进步与互联网金融兴起的大背景下,中国以世界上最庞大的移动终端群体推进了移动支付的迅猛增长。移动支付的普及大大减少了现金流通,从而不可避免地引起我国货币乘数的变化,进而引起广义货币数量的变化。根据2013—2018年的季度数据构建货币乘数模型,实证检验移动支付对货币乘数影响机制,探讨在移动支付背景下货币乘数的影响因素。结果显示,移动支付通过减小现金漏损率和超额准备金率增大货币乘数,通过减小定活比率增大狭义货币乘数和减小广义货币乘数,传统货币分层(M0,M1,M2)的界限变得模糊。中国人民银行在未来可以考虑建立移动支付存款准备金制度,加强对货币供应数量的调控。

On the viewpoint of traditional monetary theory,mobile payment indirectly affects the monetary multiplier.Based on the background of the development of electronic information technology and internet financial,China,as the largest Vshop group,has pushed the development of mobile payment.Under the framework of traditional monetary theory,this paper combines mathematical methods to analyze how mobile payment indirectly affects the monetary multiplier.This paper constructs a monetary multiplier model based on the relevant quarterly data from 2013 to 2018,empirically tests the impact mechanism of mobile payment on the monetary multiplier,and further discusses the changes of the monetary multiplier under the background of mobile payment.It is concluded that mobile payment increases the narrow money multiplier and the broad money multiplier by reducing the cash leakage rate and the excess reserve rate,and increases the narrow money multiplier,reduces the broad money multiplier by reducing the fixed rate.The traditional monetary delamination ( M 0,M 1,M 2 ) becomes indistinctly.Finally,policy suggestions are put forward to stabilize the money multiplier and the money supply according to the research results.