太湖地区2015年主汛期雨情展望及后期对比分析——以无锡站为例

Prospect of rainfall in the main flood season(July-August) of Taihu Lake Region in 2015 and comparative analysis in the later period——take Wuxi Station as an example

选择历史演变法和分段法,围绕降雨极值出现后的序列特征变化对太湖地区代表性雨量站展开分析,回避了繁琐的资料统计过程,按时完成预测任务,并且取得了较好的成果。研究表明,无锡站降雨资料不但在太湖流域具有较高的代表性,在国内也具有一定的代表性,可以很好地反映我国降雨带的南北转移情况;无锡站6月降雨量出现特大峰值后,对7月的影响是负相关、降雨正常偏少,对8月的影响则是正相关、降雨偏多;暖冬对无锡站汛期降雨的影响是5月和9月偏少、8月偏多,冷冬的影响正好相反。同时,总结了区域降雨的变化规律,可为防汛工作提供技术支撑与参考。

The historical evolution method and the segmentation method were selected to analyze the representative rainfall stations in the Taihu Lake area after the occurrence of the extreme values of rainfall extremes,avoiding the cumbersome data statistics process,completing the forecasting tasks on time,and achieving good results. The results showed that the rainfall data of Wuxi Rainfall Station were not only highly representative in the Taihu Lake Basin,but also representative in China,which could well reflect the North-South transfer of the rainfall belt in China. After the extreme peak rainfall in June at Wuxi Rainfall Station,the influence on July was negatively correlated with less normal rainfall,while the influence on August was positively correlated with more rainfall. The influence of warm winter on the rainy season of Wuxi Station was less in May and September,more in August,while the influence of cold winter was just the opposite. Meanwhile,the variation rule of regional rainfall was summarized,which could provide technical support for flood control work.