气候变化对吉林永吉水稻主要发育期及产量的影响分析

Impact of Climate Change on Main Development Period and Yield of Rice in Yongji of Jilin Province

利用吉林市永吉县农业气象站1981-2018水稻生长季气温、降水量、日照时数资料,1990-2018年水稻播种、抽穗和成熟的具体日期以及1994-2018年水稻产量资料,采用线性回归法分析气候变化对水稻生育期和产量的影响。结果表明,1981-2018年永吉县水稻生育期内的平均气温和降水量呈现出逐年增加的趋势,增加趋势较为显著;日照时数呈现出逐年减少的趋势,但是减少幅度不太明显;1990-2018年永吉县水稻播种期、抽穗期和成熟期均呈现出逐年提前的趋势,只是提前幅度不尽相同,其中以播种期提前幅度最大,其次是成熟期,抽穗期提前幅度相对较小;水稻全生育天数呈现出逐年增加的趋势,增加幅度为0.177 d/10年,变化不太明显;1994-2018年永吉县水稻理论产量和实际产量均呈现出逐年增加的趋势,分别增产18.559和14.872 g/m2,两者增加幅度有一定的差异,其主要原因可能与温度、降水量、日照时数等气象因素相关。

Based on the data of temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours during rice growing season from1981 to 2018 at Yongji Agrometeorological Station of Jilin City, the specific date of rice sowing, heading and maturity from 1990 to 2018 and the data of rice yield from 1994 to 2018, the effects of climate change on rice growth period and yield were analyzed by linear regression method. The results showed that the average temperature and precipitation during rice growing period in Yongji County from 1981 to 2018 showed an increasing trend year by year, and the increasing trend was more significant. The sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend year by year, but the decreasing range was not obvious. From 1990 to 2018, the sowing date, heading date and maturity date of rice in Yongji County showed a trend of advancing year by year. The sowing date had the greatest advance, followed by maturity period, and heading date had a relatively small advance. The whole growth days of rice showed an increasing trend year by year, with an increase of0.177 d/10 years. From 1994 to 2018,the theoretical and actual yields of rice in Yongji County showed an increasing trend year by year, increasing by 18.559 g/m2 and 14.872 g/m2, respectively.There were some differences between the theoretical yield and the actual yield of rice, which might be related to meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours and so on.