抚顺地区2018年10月2次冷涡降水漏报原因对比分析

Contrastive Analysis on the Causes of Two Unreported Cold Vortex Precipitation in Fushun Area in October 2018

选取抚顺地区2018年10月9日、28日2次冷涡天气过程,利用常规气象资料对高空环流背景、地面形势以及水汽条件特征进行了对比分析。2次天气过程预报员均出现漏报现象。通过对2次过程的天气形势分析以及数值预报检验,发现欧洲中心细网格(数值预报)对于高空冷涡配合地面倒槽产生的降水预报时间比实际降水时间延迟;对冷涡后部配合地面低压产生的降水预报时间比实际降水提前。预报员主观预报出现漏报的原因主要缘于对冷涡天气系统的发生、发展机理及结构认识不足,对水汽、抬升等关键降水要素缺乏合理的预报订正经验。

Selecting two cold vortex weather processes in Fushun area on October 9 and 28, 2018, and using conventional meteorological data, the background of upper circulation, ground situation and characteristics of water vapor conditions were compared and analyzed. During the two weather processes,the forecasters all missed the report. By analyzing the weather situation of the two processes and verifying the numerical forecast, it was found that the forecast time of the precipitation produced by the fine grid(numerical forecast) in the European Center was later than the actual precipitation time for the high-altitude cold vortex combined with the ground inverted trough, and the forecast time for the precipitation produced by the rear of the cold vortex combined with the ground low pressure was earlier than the actual precipitation time. The main reasons for the omission of subjective forecast by forecasters were lack of understanding of the occurrence, development mechanism and structure of cold vortex weather system, and lack of reasonable experience in forecasting and revising key precipitation elements such as water vapor and uplift.