基于最大熵原理的电-气综合能源系统概率能量流分析

Maximum Entropy Based Probabilistic Energy Flow Calculation for Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas Systems

随着电力系统与天然气系统间耦合程度的日益增强,能源系统间的不确定性因素对电-气综合能源系统(integrated energy systems,IES)运行状态的影响日趋显著,需在其能量流分析中予以考虑。为此,提出一种基于最大熵原理的电-气综合能源系统概率能量流计算方法。首先,考虑燃气机组和电驱动压缩机作为耦合元件,构建电力系统和天然气系统的稳态能量流模型,并提出对应的顺序求解方法;然后,基于风电和不同系统负荷的不确定性模型,提出输出状态变量半不变量的计算方法;在此基础上,基于最大熵原理法计算得到不同系统中节点和支路状态量的概率密度;最后,采用IES 118-20节点和IES 2383-60节点综合能源测试系统对所提算法的准确性和有效性进行分析验证,结果表明,所提算法可实现电–气综合能源系统概率能量流的快速准确计算。

As the increasing coupling between electricity system and natural gas system, uncertainties of energy systems,which have increasingly impacts on the operation conditions of integrated electricity and natural gas energy systems, should be taken into account in the analysis of energy flow. This paper proposed a probabilistic energy flow assessment method of integrated electricity and natural gas energy systems based on maximum entropy. Firstly, natural gas fired generation units and electric-driven compressors were considered as coupling aspects. The models of steady state energy flow for integrated electricity and natural gas system was presented, and a sequential calculation method was proposed. Then, the computation method of cumulants of output state variables was developed. The probability densities of nodal and branch state variables in different energy systems were obtained based on maximum entropy method. The accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed calculation method of probabilistic energy flow for integrated electricity and natural gas energy systems were demonstrated based on the test results of the 118-20 nodes and2383-60 nodes integrated electricity and natural gas systems.The results verify that the proposed algorithm can realize quick and accurate calculation of probabilistic energy flow for integrated electricity and natural gas energy systems.