俄罗斯对以色列外交战略及未来趋势

Russia’s Diplomatic Strategy towards Israel And Its Future Trend

美国正从中东战略收缩,俄以均寻求扩展外交空间。俄罗斯无法挑战美以特殊关系,但通过同以色列的主动合作,俄罗斯避免以色列过分地干扰在伊朗、叙利亚等地的俄罗斯利益,并希望以色列不追随欧美国家参与对俄制裁、交换极端组织情报。俄罗斯是中东唯一能够与所有势力保持联系的国家,以色列同俄罗斯保持有效沟通和合作,干扰伊朗等国从俄罗斯获取到先进装备,就能积极引导和塑造对以色列有利的安全环境。两国有不断增进合作的防御性动因。除地缘利益外,两国围绕历史记忆和俄以犹太人的特殊联系有广阔的合作空间。高层互动的"文化搭台,安全唱戏"模式,仍将是两国关系的最重要稳定机制。未来,随着叙利亚战局的演变,双方仍有摩擦性风险。随着美以右转和"世纪协议"的出台,俄罗斯参与斡旋巴以问题难有新突破。

With the shrinkage of the United States from the Middle East, both Russia and Israel are seeking to expand their diplomatic space. Firstly, Russia cannot upend the special relationship between America and Israel at present, but by actively cooperating with Israel, he can prevent this country from interfering with his geopolitical interests in Syria and Iran. Russia wants Israel not to follow Western sanctions and to exchange intelligence on extremist groups with him. Besides, Russia is the only country in the Middle East that can maintain contact with all main forces. Secondly, if Israel can maintain effective communication and cooperation with Russia and interfere with Iran and other countries’ acquisition of advanced equipment from Russia, there will be a favorable security environment for Israel. In a word, the two countries have defensive motives for increasing cooperation. Apart from geographic interests, they have broad space for cooperation around historical memory. The "cultural platform and safety performance" mode of high-level interaction will remain the most important stabilizing mechanism of bilateral relations. However, as the war situation in Syria evolves, there is still a risk of friction between the two sides in the future. And with the right turn of the United States and Israel and the promulgation of the "deal of the century", it is difficult for Russia to make a new breakthrough in its participation in mediation between Palestine and Israel.