中国“能源转型”是否合理?——能源替代-互补关系的实证研究

Is It Reasonable for China to Promote “Energy Transition” Now? ——An Empirical Study on the Substitution-Complementation Relationship among Energy Resources

从"新时代"中国的经济社会发展形势看,为了解决能源部门发展"不平衡不充分"等主要矛盾,必然要求中国能源转型深度思考从"高速增长"到"高质量发展"的基础和保障是否合理。为此,本文基于MES方法和LVC方法,构建了一个能源转型的内因判定模型,研究中国能源替代-互补关系;并通过利用2000-2017年中国能源部门的市场份额、能源价格和成本等数据,从价格弹性和技术扩散的角度,分析"电能替代"和"多能互补"等转型模式的科学性和可行性。研究结果表明:(1)目前中国化石能源和火力发电仍存在一定的发展空间;清洁能源发电对能源替代-互补关系的互动和协调具有较好的解释力,但对转型目标实现的影响程度有限。(2)在技术层面,电能对化石能源具有较强的替代性,且清洁能源发电的替代效果优于火力发电;在"电能内部替代"过程中,价格对能源转型具有显著的"信号"诱导作用。(3)"电能替代"无法满足现阶段中国能源转型的目标要求,在能源需求侧仍需要"多能互补"模式协同,以促进能源转型。最后提出政策建议与研究展望。

In view of the economic and social development situation of China in the "New Era", it is necessary for China to rethink about the foundation and the reasonable guarantee of China’s energy transition from "high speed growth" to "high quality development" to solve the major contradictions of "imbalance and insufficiency" in the development of energy sector. Therefore, based on the MES and the LVC, this article constructs an internal-cause-evaluation model for energy transition, and studies the energy substitution-complementation relationship in China. By using the data of the market share, energy price and energy cost of the Chinese energy sector during 2000-2017 years, the scientificity and feasibility of transition modes, such as the Electric Power Substitution and the Multi-energy Mix, is analyzed with respect to price elasticity and technology diffusion. The results show that:(1) Currently, there are still spaces for development of fossil energy and thermal power generation;clean energy generation has a good explanatory power for the interaction and coordination of energy substitution-complementation relationship, however, it has limited influence on the realization of the transition goal.(2) At the technical level, electric power has become a strong alternative to fossil energy, and especially the alternative effect of clean energy generation is better than that of thermal power generation. In the process of "inter-electricity Substitution", the price has a significant "signal" induction effect on energy transition.(3)"Electric Power Substitution" mode cannot meet the target requirements of China’s energy transition at the present stage. In the energy demand-side, the "Multi-energy Mix" mode is still needed to promote China’s energy transition. Finally, the policy suggestions and research prospects are put forward.