资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

Evaluation of resources environmental carrying capacity and its application in industrial restructuring in Tibet, China

经济的快速发展造成资源的过度消耗和环境恶化,资源环境承载力研究逐渐得以关注。本文构建了产业、人口、经济、资源、环境综合分析框架,该框架首先评价各产业对区域社会经济的重要性,确定产业结构调整方向;进而分析产业、人口与资源环境间相互作用机制,明晰产业经济、人口规模与资源利用、环境污染的关系;然后开展资源环境承载力综合评价,为实现环境友好、资源有效利用前提下的最大社会经济发展规模提供依据。西藏自治区案例研究结果显示,有色金属矿采选业、旅游业、酒饮料和精制茶制造业对当地社会经济系统有着重要作用,成为支柱产业;不同发展情景的资源环境承载力评价,确定了资源环境限制下各种产业结构调整所能支撑的最大人口和经济规模,为区域产业发展提供决策依据。本文所构建的分析框架可为实现"社会经济-资源环境"系统可持续发展提供决策支撑。该框架的建立增强了资源环境承载力评价方法在辅助决策方面的可操作性,有助于推进区域资源环境承载力理论研究和实践应用。

As natural resources are experiencing rapid reduction and the environment is degenerating,resource environmental carrying capacity has attracted more and more attention in China.However,current research on resource environmental carrying capacity still stays at theoretical level leaving the gap with applications.Moreover,the study conclusions are usually not of policy implications and lack of operability.This study develops a comprehensive analytical framework for the co-development of industries,population,economy,resources and environment.The framework first evaluates the importance of all industries to local social economy and determines the direction of industrial structure adjustment,and then identifies the interaction relationships among the socioeconomic development,resource consumption and environment emission,and subsequently evaluates the resource environmental carrying capacity,which helps achieve the maximum socio-economic development under the premise of environmental protection and efficient resource utilization.The Tibet case study estimates the local resource environmental carrying capacity under different development scenarios and therefore determines the maximum population and economic scale through industrial structure adjustments under the constraints of resource and environment.The results show that to focus on the development of tourism can significantly improve the resource environmental carrying capacity of Tibet.The results could help make decision regarding local industrial structure adjustments to achieve sustainable development.In conclusion the proposed analytical framework provides an operational decision support tool for"socio-ecological"sustainability.It can be extended to other regions through minor parameter adjustments.