对当前中美经贸关系走势的分析与研判

Analysis and Judgment on the Current Trend of Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations

当前,中美之间博弈不是世界第一、第二的博弈,而是正义与非正义的博弈,是前进和后退的博弈,是开放与封闭的博弈,是经济全球化还是逆全球化的博弈。那些陈旧的、过时的一些经验教训或者理论,有一定的借鉴意义,但其解释和解决不了当前中美之间的问题。美国表面上看起来气势汹汹,霸权地位支撑了其霸凌主义行径。但实质上美国已经输了,如果不能改弦易辙,还会输得更惨。中美关系唯一正确的选项是合作。这场竞争与博弈不是遭遇战,而是一场持久战。它不是短期通过贸易谈判可以解决的事情,是一个长周期的问题,将伴随着中国崛起成为社会主义现代化强国的全过程。我们必须有战略定位、战略耐力、战略反制能力。

At present, the game between China and the United States is not one between the world's biggest two economies, but one between justice and injustice, the advanced and the backward, opening and isolation, and economic globalization and deglobalization.To some extent, those old and outdated experiences, lessons or theories can be referred to, but they are unable to explain or solve the current problems between China and the United States. The United States appears to be aggressive, and its hegemonic power supports its bullying practices. But in essence, the United States has lost, and if it does not change course promptly it will lose even more. The only right option for Sino-US relations is cooperation. Their competition is not a close fight, but a protracted war. It is not a matter that can be solved by short-term trade negotiations, but is a long-term issue which will accompany the whole process of China's rise to become a modern socialist power. We must have strategic positioning, strategic endurance and strategic countermeasure capability.