人口老龄化、代际平衡与公共福利性支出

Aging Population, Generational Balance, and Public Welfare Expenditure

本文从代际平衡的视角探讨人口老龄化对中国地方公共福利性支出的影响。理论分析表明,人口老龄化对人均公共福利性支出以及福利性支出与消费型支出比值的影响,取决于老年人福利性支出的受益率以及年轻人负担的劳动所得税税率的高低。基于面板平滑转换模型的实证分析证实了理论分析的假说,其结果显示:第一,当老年人福利性支出的受益率低于55.51%时,人口老龄化与人均公共福利性支出存在负相关关系;但是,当老年人福利性支出的受益率高于55.51%时,在高所得税负地区,人口老龄化与人均福利性支出负相关,在低所得税负地区,人口老龄化与人均福利性支出正相关。第二,当老年人福利性支出的受益率低于72.34%时,人口老龄化与两类支出的比值负相关;但是,当老年人福利性支出的受益率高于72.34%时,人口老龄化与两类支出的比值正相关。本文认为,在人口老龄化加速推进的背景下,政府不仅要适度增加福利性公共服务的供给,还应提高老年人在养老、医疗等社会福利体系中成本分摊和受益分享的对应性,避免公共福利性支出的增长对代际财政平衡和财政可持续性产生巨大冲击。

As the population ages, the nationwide demand for welfare public services will continue to increase. In responding to this change of preferences, the government will have to raise the supply of welfare public services. Under the government s balanced budget, this shift will result in a relative reduction in the supply of the consumption public services preferred by young people. Under the “pay-as-you-go” system, the cost of the welfare public services that are preferred by older persons is mainly borne by young people who are currently in the workforce .Therefore, the government s increased supply of welfare public services will not only reduce the benefits of public services for young people, but also increase the public service costs borne by young people. This imbalance could cause intergenerational conflicts over the priorities for public spending. This paper explores whether and under what conditions the government is willing to raise the level of per capita public welfare expenditure, and to increase the ratio of welfare expenditure to consumption expenditure. This investigation aims to answer the question of how the government can maintain an intergenerational balance in sharing the benefits and costs of public services among different age groups, against the background of an aging population. This assessment provides reliable quantitative evidence to help the government in reforming the fiscal mechanism, and coping with the shocks to intergenerational fiscal equality and fiscal sustainability caused by population aging. Specifically, a theoretical analysis based on an OLG model shows that estimations for the impact of population aging on the levels and relative proportions of public welfare expenditures depend on several variables. These estimations depend on what proportion of the elderly population benefits from the welfare expenditures, and on the level of income tax burden placed on young people. This paper s empirical analysis, which is based on a panel smooth transition model, confirms the findings of the above-described theoretical analysis. When the benefit rate of welfare expenditure for the elderly is lower than 55.51%, then regardless of the burden of the personal income tax, local governments tend to reduce the level of per capita welfare expenditure with increases in the proportion of the elderly population. When the benefit rate of welfare expenditure for the elderly is higher than 55.51%, then as the proportion of the elderly population increases, the government tends to raise the level of per capita welfare expenditure in areas where the personal income tax burden is relatively light, and to lower the level of per capita welfare expenditure in areas where the personal income tax burden is relatively heavy. With a further increase of population aging, if the benefit rate of welfare expenditures for the elderly risesto72.34%, the government tends to reduce the relative proportion of welfare expenditure versus consumption expenditure. However, when the welfare expenditure for the elderly is higher than 72.34%, then the government tends to increase the relative proportion of welfare expenditure versus consumption expenditure. Under a “pay-as-you-go” system, when the size and the proportion of the elderly population continues to increase, the elderly will benefit more from social welfare public services. In that case, the government tends to further increase the “generosity” of the social welfare system, which may lead to serious intergenerational fiscal inequality and financial unsustainability. In view of these trends, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations. First, the structure of public expenditure should be optimized to improve efficiency in the use of public funds, and the budgeted funds should be gradually shifted from the areas of ineffective use toward subsidies for social benefits. Second, the tax structure should be optimized and a reasonable structure of direct and indirect taxes should be maintained, so that a certain proportion of public service costs can be allocated through indirect taxes to the elderly. Finally, the “pay as you go” social security system should be reformed to improve the correlation between cost allocation and benefit sharing for the elderly.