人力资本错配下的决策:优先创新驱动还是优先产业升级?

Decision-making under Misallocation of Human Capital: Giving Priority to Industrial Restructuring or R&D?

如何将专业化人力资本形成过程与产业结构调整过程相结合,以实现新时代下经济的平稳过渡和高质量发展成为一个重要的理论和现实问题。本文研究表明,在市场条件下,后发国家的经济转型伴随着人力资本与产业结构错配,其占优决策为优先作好产业升级,而不是创新驱动。然而,如果后发国家一直保持传统产业的比较优势,而不纠正人力资本与传统产业间的错配,则难以实现缩小与发达国家的差距;在纠正错配时,后发国家如果过多地强调自主创新,而忽视产业升级,可能违背市场规律,难以摆脱传统产业的主导地位。就纠正人力资本错配而言本文的政策建议为:通过深化市场化导向的制度变革、提高高技能产业的投资回报、提升人力资本定价的市场化程度以及积极鼓励和发展现代服务业等方式改善人力资本错配现状。

The economic transition of a catch-up country is bound to involve misallocations of human capital and inefficiencies in developing industrial structures. In managing such issues, the central decisions involve choices between utilizing limited human capital for “innovation-driven” change, or investing in “industrial upgrading”. To analyze these options we refer to the factor allocation structure used in developed countries, and focus our investigation on three types of business departments, namely those found in traditional industries, in high-tech industries, and in R&D departments. At the same time, we examine two types of human capital misallocation as a means to inspect the differences in allocations of high-tech labor in catch-up economies and in developed economies. If we suppose that industrial structures are determined by the quality of labor, then it seems apparent that differences in industrial structures may widen the income gaps between advanced and developing countries. Through comparative statistical analysis, we find that new human capital in developing countries is typically allocated to technology-intensive industries under free market conditions. Therefore, on the basis of considering short-term market effectiveness, we propose that China s current strategy for economic transition should give priority to the development of technology-intensive industry, and allow for the misallocation of human capital, rather than immediately seeking to implement the same human capital structure that is found in advanced countries, or to stress investment in R&D and innovation. Specifically, we propose a concrete form of “comparative advantage evolution hindered” theory, which suggests that the speeds of economic growth in developing and developed countries tend to converge, but the gap in per capita income between them cannot disappear. The comparative advantage of the labor-intensive sector in the developing country is established on the basis of higher prices for technology-intensive products in advanced countries, and the per capita income gap cannot narrow, even with perfect technology spillover. In addition, if indigenous innovation is overemphasized and industrial upgrading is ignored in a developing country, then this kind of resource allocation may give rise to a situation in which neither innovation nor upgrading occur, as the developing country s industries may lose their previous comparative advantages. Finally, we build an econometric empirical model based on this complementary relationship, as a means to examine the core conclusions of the paper. At present, China s human capital has begun to grow rapidly, and the quality of expertise has greatly expanded. At this point, the essential question is how to combine professional human capital formation and industry structure adjustment, to realize a smooth transition to a high-quality, rapidly growing economy. This question has become an important theoretical and practical issue. Therefore, this paper offers several suggestions. First, for the sake of enabling reform in both storage capacity and markets, it should be emphasized that the monopolization of administrative authority has long hampered the development of industry in China, and that structural reform of business management can encourage creative problem-solving. Second, accelerating the reform of employment and social security welfare in government and public institutions can open the door to more efficient flows of human capital. Third, we should make efforts to encourage the emergence of a modern service industry. This paper makes four contributions to the field. First, it provides an analysis of the logic involved in choosing between industrial evolution and the misallocation of human capital in developing countries. Second, the paper explores the optimal path to realize industrial restructuring and upgrading. Third, this paper proposes ways to avoid the pitfalls of promoting growth by adding inputs only, and it offers a clear direction for effective allocation of human capital in catch-up countries. Fourth, the paper assesses the factors for resistance to China s economic transition and the causes for misallocation of human capital.