“十三五”中后期我国煤电发展转型研究及未来预测

Research and future forecast of coal power transformation in the middle and late period of the 13th five-year plan

随着我国能源结构转型的不断推进,煤电在电力结构中的占比逐步降低,清洁可再生能源发电装机快速发展,未来将逐步取代煤电的主导地位;但短期来看,出现短期电力需求超预期增长的情况,仍然要依靠煤电保障电力安全。同时,认为随着"十三五"后期电力需求增速放缓,煤电机组将由电量型机组向基荷机组(电量型)和提供灵活性和辅助服务机组(电力型)转变,以保障电力安全和可再生能源消纳。分析研究了新旧动能转换期重点行业用电需求现状,提出在短期内2018年的高用电增速并不可持续。综合评估确定了2020年的合理煤电规模,并针对煤电灵活性改造给出具体建议。估算2020年电力行业煤炭消费量约为13.2亿t标煤,2030年约为11.7亿t标煤。

With the continuous advancement of China’s energy structure transformation, the proportion of coal power in power structure has gradually decreased, and the rapid development of clean renewable energy power generation will gradually replace the dominant position of coal power. However, in the short term, if growth of short term power demand was more than expected, it still depended on coal power to ensure power safety. With the slowdown of power demand growth in the late 13 th five-year Plan period, coal power units will be transformed from uniform electricity-type units to base load units(electric quantity type), and power-type units witch providing flexibility and auxiliary service units(electricity type) to ensure power safety and renewable energy sources consumption. According to studying the current situation of electric demand of key industries during the transition period between new and old kinetic energy, the results showed that the growth rate of high electric consumption in 2018 was not sustainable in the short term. The comprehensive assessment confirms the reasonable coal-fired scale in 2020, provides specific recommendations for the flexibility retrofit of coal power generation, and estimates the coal consumption of the power industry in 2020 will be about 1.32 billion tons standard coal, and it will be about 1.17 billion tons standard coal in 2030.