APACHEⅡ、NEWS、PESI和CCI用于肺栓塞预后的比较研究

APACHEⅡ, NEWS, PESI and CCI for predicting mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: a comparative study

目的比较急性生理与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ(acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ,APACHEⅡ)、国家早期预警评分(national early warning score,NEWS)、肺栓塞严重程度指数(pulmonary embolism severity index,PESI)和Charlson合并症指数(Charlson comorbidity index,CCI)四种评分对肺栓塞(pulmonary embolism,PE)预后的影响。方法采用病例-对照方法回顾性分析2010~2017年湘雅二医院诊断的PE患者的临床资料,按病死组和存活组计算两组患者的4种临床评分。比较两组间危险因素的差异,并采用logistic回归分析得出与病死率相关的独立危险因素。采用ROC工作曲线比较四种临床评分对PE病死率的预后诊断价值。统计分析采用SPSS 24.0和Medcalc 18.2.1软件。结果共纳入318例患者,病死率13.2%。病死组的APACHEⅡ、NEWS、PESI、CCI评分均高于存活组,两组差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。对预后的危险因素进行logistic回归分析,发现脑血管疾病、心率、白细胞、肌钙蛋白T、动脉血氧分压、右心室功能不全是患者90天病死率的独立危险因素。APACHEⅡ、CCI、PESI、NEWS的ROC曲线下面积分别是0.886、0.728、0.715、0.731,其中APACHEⅡ的曲线下面积最大,优于NEWS、CCI、PESI(P<0.05),NEWS、CCI、PESI三者间比较,差异无统计学意义。结论APACHEⅡ可能是对PE患者病死率的最佳预测指标,优于NEWS、CCI、PESI。

Objectives To compare the efficacy of acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ), national early warning score(NEWS), pulmonary embolism severity index(PESI) and Charlson comorbidity index(CCI) on pulmonary embolism(PE) prognosis. Methods Clinical data of patients with PE treated in The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from 2010 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into death group and survival group, and four clinical scores were calculated. The differences of risk factors between the two groups were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to obtain the independent risk factors related to mortality. The ROC working curve was used to compare the capability of four clinical scores for PE mortality.SPSS 24.0 and Medcalc 18.2.1 software were used for statistical analysis. Results A total of 318 patients with PE were included, and the mortality rate was 13.2%. The APACHEⅡ, NEWS, PESI and CCI of the death group were higher than those of the survival group. There were significant differences between two groups(P<0.05). It was confirmed by logistic regression analysis that cerebrovascular disease, heart rate, leukocyte, troponin T, arterial partial pressure of oxygen, right ventricular dysfunction(RVD) were independent risk factors for 90-day mortality. The areas under the ROC curve of APACHEⅡ, CCI, PESI, NEWS were 0.886, 0.728, 0.715 and 0.731, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of APACHEⅡ was the largest, which was better than NEWS, CCI and PESI(P<0.05), and there was no significant difference among NEWS, CCI and PESI. Conclusions APACHEⅡ may be the best predictor of mortality in PE patients, which is superior to NEWS, CCI and PESI.