结构性减税的价格效应——基于CGE模型的实证研究

Price Effect of Structural Tax Reduction——Empirical Study Based on CGE Model

本文构建了一个包含增值税的CGE模型,利用2019年增值税减税的政策变化,分析了结构性减税的价格效应。研究发现,结构性减税对价格影响显著,在其他条件不变的情况下,将拉低我国几乎所有经济环节的价格水平,说明结构性减税有助于降低全社会生产经营成本,增强我国实体经济的竞争力。但同时应关注结构性减税所带来的通缩效应。本文结论对于下一步财税改革以及配套政策制定具有参考意义。

Based on the CGE model, this paper constructs an analytical framework on the price effect of VAT tax reduction, and assesses the overall and structural impact of the tax reduction in 2019 on price level. The study finds that structural tax reduction has a significant impact on price, which will lower the price level of almost all economic sectors in China under the same other conditions. It shows that structural tax reduction can help reduce the production and operation costs of the whole society and enhance the competitiveness of the real economy of our country. But at the same time, close attention should be paid to the deflationary effect of the tax reduction. These conclusions are of great significance for reference to China’s Finance and Taxation Policy in the next step and the formulation of relevant supporting policies.