1976—2017年乌鲁木齐市升温对季节的影响

Effects of the Warming on Seasons in Urumqi City during 1976-2017

采用乌鲁木齐市国家基准气象站的逐日平均、逐日最低和逐日最高气温资料,分析了乌鲁木齐市1976—2017年气温变化趋势和对四季长度的影响。结果表明:乌市气温有明显上升的趋势,年平均气温的线性增温速率为0.50℃/10a,1997年出现了最暖年,1976年以来最暖的10a均出现在20世纪末以后;年平均最低气温升温趋势最为明显,线性增温速率为0.77℃/10a,增温速率约是年平均最高气温的2.5倍;气温上升导致春季和夏季的开始日期提前明显、秋季和冬季开始日期有推后的趋势,使得夏季明显延长,线性延长率为5.9d/10a,近42a来共增加25d,其他季节则有不同程度的缩短,其中冬季缩短最为明显,线性缩短率为-3.6d/10a,近42a来共缩短了15d;各季节开始日期不仅与年平均气温相关性很好,且开春期、入夏期分别与3月和6月平均气温显著负相关;入秋期与入冬期分别与9月和11月气温呈显著正相关;夏季和冬季的长度也与年平均气温显著相关,当年平均气温每上升1℃时,夏季将延长6d,而冬季则会缩短7d。

Using Based on the daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature data, it analyzed the trend of temperature change and its effect on four seasons in Urumqi from 1976 to 2017. The results showed that: the air temperature of Urumqi had an obviously upward trend, with the rate of 0.50 C/ 10a. The warmest year appeared in 1997,and the warmest 10 years all appeared in the end of the 20th century. The warming trend of annual mean minimum temperature is the most obvious,and the tendency rate is 0.77℃/10a, which is about 2.5 times of the annual average maximum temperature. The rise of temperature leads to the obvious advance of the start dates in spring and summer, and the postponement of the start dates in autumn and winter. It is the longest in winter and the shortest in autumn. It prolongs summer significantly with a rate of 5.9 d/10a. It has increased by 25 days in summer ,and it has shortened in varying degrees in other seasons, especially in winter, with a rate of - 3.6 d/10a. The start date of each season has a good correlation with the annual average temperature, and the opening spring and entering summer are significantly negatively related to the average temperature in March and June, respectively. The autumn and winter are positively correlated with the temperature in September and November, respectively. The length of summer and winter is also significantly related to the annual average temperature. The average annual temperature was increased by 1℃, extended by 6 d in summer, and shortened by 7 d in winter.