广东省主体功能区碳排放特征及驱动因素研究

Carbon Emission Characteristics and Driving Factors of Low Carbon Development in the Main Functional Areas of Guangdong Province

基于不同类型主体功能区的发展定位与碳排放驱动要素分解,提出有针对性的区域差异化低碳发展路径是推进主体功能区可持续发展的重要内容。基于调研资料,分析了广东省各主体功能区自2010年以来的碳排放演变特征,从人口效应、经济效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应以及碳排放因子效应五个因素对造成不同主体功能区碳排放差异的原因进行了分析。要素分解发现,经济规模和人口数量增长对优化开发区碳排放量增长的贡献率最大;产业结构的优化从2012年开始成为使优化开发区碳排放量降低的影响因素,对重点开发区和生态发展区碳排放量降低的作用仍不明显;产业能源强度变动均使三类功能区碳排放量降低,但是贡献率呈现明显差异。建议:(1)加快发展优化开发区服务业,积极推动实施居民碳排放管理;(2)重点开发区应以提高能效和推进低碳技术为主实施低碳转型;(3)生态发展区要大力推广清洁能源,促使农业低碳化发展。

Based on the development orientation of different types of the main functional areas and the decomposition of carbon emission driving factors,targeted regional differentiation and low carbon development path as an important part of promoting the sustainable development of the main functional areas was proposed.Based on the survey data,the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions and low carbon development problems of the main functional areas in Guangdong Province since 2010 were analyzed;the reason of carbon emission differences in different functional areas were analyzed according to population effect,economic effect,energy intensity effect,industrial structure effect and carbon emission factor effect.It was found that the increase of GDP and population were the majors that led to carbon emission increase in the optimized development areas;since 2012,the optimization of industrial structure has become an influential factor for the reduction of carbon emissions in the optimized development areas,and the effect on the reduction of carbon emissions in key development areas and ecological development areas were still not obvious;the change of industrial energy intensity inhibited the carbon emissions in all these three types of the main functional areas,while the contribution rate showed significant differences.Suggestions:(1)accelerate the development of the service industry in the optimized development areas and actively promote the implementation of residential carbon emission management;(2)key development areas should focus on improving energy efficiency and promoting low-carbon technologies to improve low-carbon transformation;(3)the ecological development area should positively promote clean energy and promote the development of low-carbon agriculture.