江西省水资源承载力评价及障碍因子诊断

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and diagnosis of obstacle factors in Jiangxi Province

水资源短缺使得江西省水资源供需矛盾日益突出,在此背景下,水资源承载力已成为衡量区域可持续发展的一项重要指标。以江西省水资源承载力为研究对象,选取了人均水资源量、生态环境用水率、耗水率、人均GDP、万元GDP用水量、产水模数、供水模数以及水资源开发程度等8个指标作为评价指标,使用2006~2015年的数据,应用熵权法确权、TOPSIS法与障碍度模型综合评价江西省水资源承载力。研究结果表明:江西省2006~2015年的水资源承载力虽然在增加,但是增长速度却变得缓慢;水资源本身因素是制约水资源承载力提升的最主要因素。为了保证社会经济的可持续发展,合理、高效地利用水资源,充分发挥水资源的承载潜力,提出了相应的对策和建议。

The shortage of water resources has caused the contradiction between water supply and demand in Jiangxi Province increasingly prominent. Water resources carrying capacity has become an important indicator to measure regional sustainable development. Taking water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province as the research object, eight indexes were selected, i.e. per capita water resources, ecological environment water consumption rate, water consumption rate, per capita GDP, water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP, water yielding modulus, water supply modulus and water resources utilization. Using data from 2006 to 2015, the entropy weight method, TOPSIS method and obstacle model were adopted to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province. The results show that the carrying capacity increased from 2006 to 2015, while, the growth rate slowed down;water resource is the most important factor restricting the improvement of water resources carrying capacity. In order to ensure the sustainable development of the social economy and use water more efficient, we should give full play to the carrying capacity of water resources, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and recommendations.