考虑价格风险的物流服务供应链能力组合采购决策

Combined purchasing decision of logistics service supply chain capability under price risk

针对多层物流服务供应链外部能力供给价格风险,引入期权契约研究风险规避型物流服务集成商的优化决策问题。考虑现货能力采购存在价格波动风险,基于期权契约模型构建了融合期权与现货市场的混合采购策略;采用条件风险值测算具有风险规避的物流服务集成商最优利润期望值,得出了期权最优能力合约订购量;对单一期权合约、单一现货市场及混合等采购模式进行比较,并分析了集成商获得利润差异变化的情况;通过算例研究与灵敏度分析,验证了融合期权与现货市场采购机制的优越性。算例表明,结合现货市场与期权合约的混合采购模式在实现较高收益的同时可完成价格风险转移,是应对供给价格波动风险的有效策略。

Based on supply price risk of external capacity of multi-layer logistics service supply chain,the option contract was introduced to optimize decision-making of risk-averse logistics service integrator.The hybrid procurement strategy of integrated option and spot market was constructed by considering price risk based on option contract.Conditional Value at Risk(CVaR)was used to measure optimal profit expectation of risk-averse logistics service integrator,and optimal order quantity was obtained.By comparing single option contracts,single spot market and other hybrid procurement models,the different profits of integrator were analyzed.The case study and sensitivity analysis were conducted to validate superiority of purchasing mechanism of integration option and spot market.The results showed that purchasing decision combined with spot market and option contract could achieve higher returns and transfer price risk,which was an effective strategy to deal with supply price fluctuation risk.