计及条件风险约束的风电消纳能力概率评估

Probabilistic assessment of accommodation capacity of wind power generation on account of conditional risk constraint

针对传统风电消纳评估模型所存在的缺陷,提出了一种基于条件风险约束的风电消纳能力概率评估模型.通过考虑传统模型的评估误差,定义了风电接纳风险函数,引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)作为量化风电接纳风险的指标,构建了基于条件风险约束的风电消纳评估模型,并采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟法对评估模型进行求解,得到系统风电消纳能力的概率分布特性,同时计算出每个风电消纳水平下的风险值.在IEEE39节点系统中进行仿真分析,仿真结果表明本文所提方法具有可行性和有效性,为保证系统在安全运行的前提下有效地消纳风电提供了更准确的信息.

Aimed at the defect of traditional assessment model of wind power generation accommodation,a probabilistic assessment model of wind power generation accommodation is presented based on conditional risk constraint.By considering the assessment error of the traditional assessment model,a risk function of wind power generation acceptance is defined,and the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is introduced as a quantized risk indicator accommodation risk of wind power generation,an assessment model of wind power generation accommodation is constructed based on conditional risk constraints,the assessment model is solved through Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method to get the probabilistic distribution characteristics of the power system accommodation,and meantime,the risk value is evaluated forevery accommodation level.Simulative analysis is carried out in power system with IEEE 39 nodes and it is shown by the simulation result that the proposed method will be feasible and effective and it will be able to provide more accurate information for effectively accommodate the wind power under the premise of safe operation of guaranteed the system.