2019年上半年中国水果市场形势分析与后市展望

Analysis of China’s Fruit Market Situation in the First Half of 2019and Its Prospects for the Future Market

2019年上半年中国水果市场价格高位运行,比2018年同期显著提高,特别是5月、6月价格猛涨,创历史新高,这主要是存储类水果库存低和时令鲜果受灾减产引起的供给偏紧所致。2019年上半年中国水果及其制品进口同比缩减,出口同比扩大,贸易逆差35.1亿美元,较2018年同期增长122%;7月时令鲜果大量上市,水果价格开始进入季节性下降通道。预计后期中国新产秋季水果增产,水果供给充裕,价格将继续回落;随着苹果、梨、柑橘等出口优势果品大量上市,下半年中国水果出口预计扩大,如中美贸易摩擦持续,中国果汁和水果罐头出口仍面临挑战。

Due to the tight supply caused by the low storage stocks and the production reduction of seasonal fresh fruits because of disaster, fruits prices kept high level in the first half of 2019, and were significantly higher than that in the same period of 2018. Fruit price soared especially in May and June to record highs. In the first half of 2019, the imports of China's fruits and fruits products were decreased year-on-year, while exports increased year-on-year, and the trade deficit of fruits and their products in China was 3.51 billion US dollars, which increased by 122% compared with the same period of 2018. A large number of seasonal fruits supply in July has pushed fruit price into seasonal low area. In the future, due to the fruits production will increase in autumn, sufficient fruits supply will push fruits prices keep going down. China's fruits export are expected to expand in the second half of 2019 with advantageous export fruits on the market, such as apple, pear, citrus and so on, and if Sino-US trade frictions continue, the exports of China's juices and tinned fruits will still face a huge challenge.