晋中市旅游业对国民经济增长的拉动效应分析

Analysis on Tourism Pull Effect of the Economic Growth in Jinzhong City

文章以"十五"到"十三五"4个时期山西省各地市的旅游业总收入及地区国民生产总值为基数,构建旅游业依存度、贡献率和拉动率3个指标,从时间和空间两个维度的差异对晋中市旅游业的经济拉动效应进行了探索。研究结果表明:2001-2016年,晋中市的旅游业依存度、旅游业贡献率和旅游业拉动率总体上不断提高,旅游业对其经济增长的拉动效应逐渐增大,预测直到2020年,晋中市旅游业的依存度将接近于1,对其他产业和国民经济的拉动效应将继续增强。从空间上来看,在山西省11个地市中,晋中市各个时期的旅游业的3个指标均在全省名列前茅,对其经济的拉动效应较为突出;因此,旅游业的发展对晋中市经济增长有明显的拉动效应。

The article builds the three indicators of the tourism industry dependence, contribution rate and pull rate from the total income of the tourism industry and the gross national product of the regions in Shanxi Province during the ten periods from the tenth to the thirteenth five-year periods. The difference between the two dimensions of space and space has explored the economic pull effect of tourism in Jinzhong City. The results of the study show: in the 2001 -2016,Jinzhong City’s tourism dependence, tourism contribution rate, and tourism pull rate have been continuously increasing,and the pulling effect of tourism on its economic growth has gradually increased. It is predicted that the tourism industry in Jinzhong City will be close to 1 by 2020, and the pulling effect on other industries and national economy will continue to increase. From a spatial point of view, among the 11 prefectures in Shanxi Province, the three indicators of tourism in each period of Jinzhong City are being ranked first in the province;the pulling effect on its economy is more prominent.