从相对疏离到权力竞逐——土耳其与沙特阿拉伯争夺地区领导权的逻辑

From Distant Coexisting to Dominance Competition: A Logic Analysis of Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s Competition for Regional Leadership Since the Middle East Turbulence

中东变局以来,土耳其与沙特阿拉伯的关系从过去的长期相安无事转向持续的矛盾对抗,两国关系变化的根源耐人寻味。总的来说,中东变局后土耳其与沙特关系持续恶化的根本原因可以从双方关系的历史演变和彼此的力量变化、战略调整来观察。首先,从历史的角度看,21世纪以来土耳其外交向中东的回归以及中东变局以来中东地区环境的变化导致土耳其与沙特的关系日趋紧张。从第一次世界大战到冷战结束,融入西方是土耳其外交的重点,土耳其与沙特的交集很少。但从2002年土耳其正义与发展党执政以来,土耳其外交向中东地区回归导致双方的关系日趋紧张。其次,进入21世纪以来,土耳其和沙特的国力迅速增长,作为地区大国,双方都把追求地区领导权作为各自的对外战略,进而引发双方围绕地区热点问题话语权、宗教领导权和发展模式主导权的竞争不断加剧。土耳其和沙特围绕地区领导权的争夺是一种权力竞争关系,而不是全面对抗的关系,这不同于沙特与伊朗的结构性对抗,但会导致中东地区格局更加复杂。

Since the turbulence in the Middle East, the relationship between Turkey and Saudi Arabia has changed from distant coexisting to persistent confrontation, which can't be fully explained by current studies. In general, the continuing aggravation of Turkey-Saudi relations can be observed from the historical evolution of their relationship and the changes of two countries' power and strategies. Firstly, from the historical perspective, Turkish diplomacy returning to the Middle East, and the regional changes since the Middle East turbulence, led to strategic tension between two sides. From the First World War to the end of the Cold War, entering into the west was the focus of Turkish diplomacy, and there were little communications between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. But since the Justice and Development Party took power in 2002, Turkey's pivot to the Middle East region led to strategic tension between two sides with great speed. Second, as middle powers, both countries regard the pursuit of regional leadership as their foreign policies, which in turn triggers fierce competition between the two on the discursive making of regional hot issues, religious leadership and dominance on development modes. The competition for the dominance between Turkey and Saudi Arabia is a kind of power competition rather than comprehensive conflict, which is different from Saudi-Iran structural rivalry, but this contradiction will lead to the complication of the regional pattern in the Middle East.