出口贸易对中国就业的影响及区域差异——基于31个省级面板数据的实证分析

The Influence of Export Trade on Chinese Employment——Based on the Panel Data from 31 Provinces

自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,我国的出口贸易有了很大的发展。由于出口贸易在影响就业方面发挥着不可替代的作用,因此,文章利用我国31个省级单位2001-2017年的面板数据,着重从就业总量及就业率两个方面探讨出口贸易所带来的就业效应及区域差异。结果表明,从全国来看,我国出口开放度每提高1%,就业人数就会显著增加0.2899%,就业率显著提高0.0185%;从区域来看,出口贸易对东、中、西部的就业总量和就业率影响差异较大,其中,东部出口贸易对就业总量和就业率影响显著为正,而中西部影响皆不显著。为缩小区域就业差异,建议加强同世界各国的经贸合作,进一步提高我国出口开放度;大力发展中西部经济的出口贸易,增强其就业效应;制定产业转移鼓励政策,缩小地区间贸易和就业的差距。

Since the "One Belt And One Road" initiative was put forward,China's export trade has made great progress.As export trade plays an irreplaceable role in affecting employment,this paper uses the panel data of 31 provincial units in China from 2001 to 2017 to discuss employment effect and regional disparity brought about by export trade.The discussion is conducted from two aspects-aggregate employment and employment rate and two conclusions are drawn.Nationally speaking,every 1% increase in China's export volume will significantly increase the number of jobs by 0.2899% and the employment rate by 0.0185%.Regionally speaking,the influence is quite different in different areas.In the east,the export trade has a positive impact on the aggregate employment and employment rate,while in the the western and central regions,it has no significant influence.In order to narrow the gap,it is suggested that we strengthen economic and trade cooperation with other countries in the world and further deepen opening-up of export,vigorously develop the export trade in the central and western regions to increase the employment effect,to formulate policies to encourage industrial transfer,and to narrow the gap between regions in trade and employment.