新中国70年经济发展:政府行为演变与增长动力转换

Economic Development of New China in the Past 70 Years: Evolution of Government Behavior and Change of Growth Momentum

从中华人民共和国成立至今70年,中国经济增长在波折中实现了奇迹般的腾飞。其间,中国经济增长历经几个重要的阶段,在每一个阶段,政府行为演变与增长动力转换互为耦合,共同编织了近一个世纪中国经济增长的沉浮与兴盛。具体地,本文将70年来的中国经济增长划分为四个阶段:中华人民共和国成立后30年(1949-1978年)、改革开放后至十八大期间(1978-2012年)、十八大至十八届五中全会期间(2012-2015年)以及十八届五中全会以后(2015年以后)。对应于不同的经济发展阶段,政府行为实现了从中央政府主导→地方政府竞争→政府让位于市场→政府与市场协作的演变。相应地,政府行为演变推动增长动力实现从投入要素驱动向创新驱动的转换。随着增长动力的不断优化,中国经济逐渐从粗放式增长的旧模式走向高质量增长的新常态。回溯70年来的经济发展历程,中国经济增长走过了一条接力式发展的道路。每一个阶段发展弊端的显现,都推动了下一阶段政府行为的演变,构成了增长动力转换与增长潜力释放的内在机制。

In the 70years since the founding of China,China’s economic growth has made great achievements.During this period,China’s economic growth has gone through several important stages.In each stage,the evolution of government behavior and the transformation of growth momentum are coupled,which jointly weave the ups and downs and prosperity of China’s economic growth in the past 70years.This paper divides China’s economic growth in the past 70 years into four stages:30years after the founding of New China(1949-1978),from the reform and opening up to the 18th National Congress(1978-2012),from the 18th National Congress to the 5th Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee(2012-2015)and stage since the 5th Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee(from 2015).Corresponding to different stages of economic development,government behavior has evolved from central government dominative mode,local government competition,government giving way to market to government-market cooperation.Accordingly, the evolution of government behavior promotes the transformation of growth momentum from input factor-driven to innovation-driven.With the continuous optimization of growth momentum,China’s economy has gradually moved from the old extensive growth model to the new normal of high-quality growth.In retrospect of 70years’economic development, China’s economic growth has gone through a relay-type development path.The emergence of the drawbacks in each stage of development improves the government behavior in the next stage,and constitutes the internal mechanism of the transformation of growth momentum and the release of growth potential.