反馈环断裂下的安全知识积累与扩散仿真研究

Simulation study on accumulation and diffusion of safety knowledge in case of feedback loop fracture

为了研究个体死亡引发反馈环断裂对安全知识积累和扩散的影响,采用元胞自动机方法,构建了多层次、多状态、多行为的安全知识积累和扩散演化模型。然后运用交替变量控制法进行仿真实验,获取605组数据,并对所得数据进行层次回归分析。研究结果表明:个体死亡会阻碍安全知识积累且会加剧个体间知识差异,同时事故率的增加会提高知识积累机会和个体死亡机会,产生复杂的双向对冲效应;替代者知识水平能够对安全知识积累和扩散产生较大的正向影响,并能削弱个体死亡的负向影响;事故见证者的增加也能够产生一定的正向影响。据此提出“数量型死亡悖论”,并指出促进安全知识积累和扩散的重点方向。

In order to study the effect of feedback loop fracture caused by individual death on the accumulation and diffusion of safety knowledge,an evolution model of multi-level,multi-state,multi-behavior safety knowledge accumulation and diffusion was constructed by using the cellular automata method.Then the simulation experiments were carried out by using the alternating variable control method,605 groups of data were obtained,and the hierarchical regression analysis was conducted on the obtained data.The results showed that the individual death would hinder the accumulation of safety knowledge and aggravate the knowledge difference between individuals.Meanwhile,the increase of accident rate would increase the opportunities of knowledge accumulation and individual death,resulting in the complex bidirectional hedging effect.The knowledge level of replacer could produce a greater positive impact on the accumulation and diffusion of safety knowledge,and weaken the negative impact of individual death.The increase of accident witnesses could also produce a certain positive impact.According to this,the “Quantitative Death Paradox” was put forward,and the key directions for promoting the accumulation and diffusion of safety knowledge were pointed out.