基于地理探测器的中国城镇化—旅游—生态时空耦合关系研究

Study on the Coupling Relationship of Urbanization-Tourism-Ecology in China Based on Geographical Detector

以我国31个省区市为研究对象,采用DEA模型与耦合协调度模型,测算2008-2017年中国城镇化效率、旅游效率及生态效率的耦合协调度,揭示我国城镇化—旅游—生态三者耦合协调度的时空演变规律,并借助地理探测器分析其耦合协调度空间格局演变的驱动因素。结果表明:2008—2017年,我国城镇化—旅游—生态三者效率的耦合协调度均值主要处于中级协调阶段,协调状态良好,其中东部地区主要处于良好协调阶段,且发展平稳,波动不大,而中西部地区主要处于初级协调阶段,前期平稳上升,后期波动剧烈,起伏发展。研究期内,三者效率的耦合协调度空间演变不大,呈现出东—中—西阶梯式递减的分布规律,2012-2016年空间演变较大,大多数省份均有所上升,分布集聚,而2017年又剧烈下滑,空间分布分散。显著影响耦合协调度空间格局的因素按影响力大小依次为开放程度、产业结构、地理位置。

The researchers taking 31 provinces and cities as the research object and adopting the DEA model and the coupling coordination degree model, the coupling degree of urbanization efficiency, tourism efficiency and ecological efficiency in China from 2008 to 2017 are calculated, revealing the laws of temporal-spatial evolution of the coupling and coordination degree of urbanization-tourism-ecology in China, and the driving factors of the spatial pattern evolution of coupling coordination degree are analyzed by means of geographic detectors. The results show that:(1) From 2008 to 2017, the mean of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization-tourism-ecology efficiency in China is mainly in the intermediate coordination stage, and the coordination state is pleasing. The eastern region is mainly in a good coordination stage, and the development is relatively stable, while the central and western regions are mainly in the primary coordination stage, which has steadily increased in the early stage, while the fluctuations in the later period have been violent and fluctuating.(2) During the research,the spatial coordination of the three-factor efficiency has little evolution, showing the distribution pattern of the east-middle-west stepwise decline. The spatial evolution of 2012-2016 is large, and the degrees of most provinces have risen and densely distributed. In 2017, the degrees fell sharply, and the spatial distribution was scattered.(3) Factors that significantly affect the spatial pattern of coupling degree of coordination, in order of increasing influence, are degree of openness, industrial structure, and geographical location.