地区社会融资规模变动及结构调整对区域经济发展的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Scale Variation and Structural Adjustment of the Regional Social Financing on Regional Economic Development

社会融资规模是全面反映金融与经济关系的总量指标,研究和探讨地区社会融资规模与区域经济发展的关系具有重要现实意义。本文以潍坊市社会融资规模为切入点进行实证分析,结果显示地区社会融资规模与区域经济增长存在长期的均衡关系,利用门限效应分析进一步证实,当社会融资规模与区域经济发展相契合时对地方经济发展推动力才能达到最优。最后对如何促进社会融资规模与经济健康发展,优化社会融资规模结构提出了建议。

Social financing scale is an aggregate indicator to comprehensively demonstrate the relationship between the finance and real economy. Studying and exploring such relationship is of greatly practical significance. This paper applies the substantial evidence analysis based on the social financing scale of Weifang. The result shows that there exists a longterm equilibrium relationship between the regional social financing scale and regional economic growth. By the means of threshold effect analysis,the study further verifies that only when the social financing scale and regional economic development are corresponded to each other can the driving force of economic development of local areas be optimum. Finally,the paper proposes to how to promote the social financing scale and the sound development of economy,how to optimize the structure of social financing scale.