基于层次分析法的变压器剩余寿命预测分析

Analysis of Transformer Residual Life Prediction Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

提出一种基于层次分析法的变压器剩余寿命预测模型。通过层次分析法建立了变压器试验健康指标体系,并与基本信息健康评估指标融合得到综合健康指数,同时考虑热累积效应、故障缺陷次数等相关因素对变压器健康状态影响的基础上,对变压器健康指数进行修正,采用健康指数老化公式对变压器的剩余寿命进行评估。采用该模型分析和计算某变压器的健康指数、剩余寿命,实例验证表明:该模型具有一定的合理性和有效性。

A transformer residual life prediction model based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. The transformer experimental health index system is established by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the comprehensive health index is obtained by fusing it with the basic information health assessment index. The transformer health index is revised by taking into account the influence of heat accumulation effect and the number of faults on the transformer health status. The aging index of the health index is used to evaluate the remaining life of the transformer. The model is used to analyze and calculate the health index and residual life of an actual transformer. The example shows that to some degree,the model is reasonable and effective.