金融冲击对企业产出的影响研究——基于中国上市公司面板数据

Research on the Impact of Financial Shocks on Enterprise Output-based on Panel Data of Chinese Listed Companies

笔者从微观角度理论上分析了金融冲击、资本结构与企业产出,金融冲击、劳动投入与企业产出,以及金融冲击、金融摩擦与企业产出的影响路径,以此为基础,利用GARCH模型计算了来自M2、股指和汇率的金融冲击,并利用1999-2017年的中国上市公司数据进行实证分析。实证结果显示:(1)金融冲击会影响企业的金融约束条件,进而导致企业产出下降;(2)金融冲击下资本结构对企业产出有重要影响,企业负债率越高产出下降越大;(3)金融冲击会使得企业劳动投入下降进而导致裁员;(4)金融冲击下金融摩擦越大企业产出的下降就越多。笔者最后给出应对金融冲击的对策:金融冲击发生前要进一步加强多元化、多层次的金融服务体系和企业财务柔性储备建设,金融冲击发生后实行低利率政策和减税、补贴等财政手段。

This paper theoretically analyses the impact path of financial shock、capital structure and output,financial shock,labor input and output,as well as financial shock,financial friction and output from micro-perspective. On this basis,GARCH model is used to calculate financial shocks from M2,stock index and exchange rate,and empirical analysis is conducted using data of Chinese listed companies from 1999 to 2017. The results show that:(1)financial shocks will affect the financial constraints of enterprises and lead to the decline of enterprises’ output;(2)capital structure has an important impact on enterprise output under financial shock,and the higher the debt ratio of enterprises,the greater the decline in output;(3)financial shock will lead to a decline in enterprise labor input and subsequent layoffs;(4)the greater the financial friction under financial shocks,the more the output of enterprises will decline. At the end of the paper,the countermeasures to deal with financial shock are put forward: Diversified and multi-level financial service system and enterprise financial flexible reserve need to be strengthened before financial shocks occur. After financial shocks occur,low interest rate policies and fiscal means such as tax reduction and subsidies should be implemented.