贸易自由化能提高全要素生产率吗?——基于交通基础设施调节效应的分析

Can Trade Liberalization Improve Total Factor Productivity?An Analysis Based on the moderating Effect of Transportation Infrastructure

基于2002—2017年中国29个省份的面板数据,实证探讨了贸易自由化对全要素生产率的影响以及交通基础设施在这一过程中的调节效应。结果发现:贸易自由化能够促进东部和西部地区的全要素生产率提升,但对中部影响不显著;铁路的负向调节作用小于高速公路;铁路对东部地区有负向调节作用,对中部和西部地区影响不显著;高速公路对东部和中部地区有负向调节作用,而对西部地区有正向调节作用。促进全要素生产率的增长,需要持续推进贸易自由化,并因地制宜地建设交通基础设施,应对发达地区对欠发达地区的虹吸效应。

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2002 to 2017, this paper empirically explores the impact of trade liberalization on total factor productivity and the moderating effects of transportation infrastructure in this process. The study finds that trade liberalization can increase the total factor productivity in the eastern and western regions, but its impact on the central region is not significant. Railway plays a less significant role than expressway in terms of negative moderating effect. Railway has a negative moderating effect on the eastern region, and no significant impact on the central and western regions, whereas expressway has a negative moderating effect on the eastern and central regions, and a positive moderating effect on the western region. These results suggest that to increase the growth of total factor productivity, trade liberalization needs to be further advocated, and transportation infrastructure needs to be constructed according to local conditions so as to cope with the siphon effect of developed regions on underdeveloped regions.