苏州市GDP与交通运输量之间的关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Traffic Volume of Suzhou

选取1996-2016年苏州市国内生产总值(GDP),客货运输量的年度数据作为研究样本,运用单位根检验、协整检验分析了GDP与客货运输量之间的关系,以确定GDP与运输量之间是否具有关联性。结果表明在5%显著性水平下,GDP与客货运输量存在长期稳定的均衡关系,经济发展对客货运输量的影响程度在总体上是稳定的。提出定基交通运输弹性系数概念,建立了定基GDP增长率与定基交通运输量增长率之间的弹性系数模型。经研究发现,在长期发展过程中,定基交通运输量弹性系数逐渐趋向于稳定。

Annual data of GDP, passenger and freight volume of Suzhou from 1996 to 2016 were selected as research samples. In order to determine the correlation between GDP and transport volume, unit root test and co-integration test were used to analyze the relationship between GDP and transport volume. The results show that under the significance level of 5%, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between GDP and transport volume, and the influence of economic development on passenger and freight volume is generally stable. The elastic coefficient of fixed-base traffic is put forward, and the elastic coefficient model between the growth rate of fixed-base GDP and the growth rate of fixed-base traffic is established. It turns out that the elastic coefficient of fixed-base traffic tends to be stable in the long term development, which has a high reference value for traffic volume prediction.