粗放式创新向可持续创新的战略转型研究——科技重大风险研究21年

Research on Strategic Transformation from Extensive Innovation to Sustainable Innovation——Catastrophic Risks Research on Science and Technology for 21 years

[目的/意义]如何治理科技重大风险,实现可持续安全与可持续创新及发展是当务之急。[方法/过程]本文通过论证"科技发展下去会发生毁灭性灾难甚至毁灭人类"这一判断确实正确并给出条件关系,[结果/结论]证明了目前趋势外推的乐观派科技大局观是错误的,指出目前科技大爆发和科技伦理失灵、科技法律失灵、安全监管失灵、"尖端武器平衡"失灵、扬长不能避短、致毁知识不可逆增长等使人类面临前所未有的巨大挑战和危机。千年变局带来全新机遇,为避免共同毁灭,必须改弦易辙,但西方国家因路径依赖而难以及时转变,我国却具有后发优势,换道超车,可率先发动新科技革命与新产业革命,摆脱修昔底德陷阱,共建人类命运共同体,引领世界走上良性竞争合作、行稳致远、可持续安全、可持续创新与发展的新型发展道路。

[Purpose/significance] It is a top priority to govern catastrophic risks of science and technology in an effective way, and achieve sustainable security, innovation and development.[Method/process] By demonstrating that the judgment of "the development of science and technology will lead to devastating disasters or even the extermination of human race", the paper proposes the judgment is indeed true and gives the conditional relations.[Result/conclusion] The paper proves that the current optimistic view of the overall situation of science and technology based on the trend extrapolation is wrong, and points out that the following factors related to science and technology have made humanity face unprecedented challenges and crises: explosion of science and technology;the failure of the of science and technology by means of ethics, laws and safety supervision;the failure of the strategy of "balance of cutting-edge weapons";the failure of the best use of advantages and the bypass of disadvantages;the irreversible growth of ruin-causing knowledge. The paper believes that human now is undergoing profound changes while also facing new opportunities, in order to avoid destruction may caused by science and technology, people should reverse the development course. Because of the effect of path dependence, the western world is difficult to change its current mainstream development model, but China has the advantage of backwardness and can change the development lanes of the western world and overtake them. China can take the lead in the new technological and industrial revolution, get rid of Thucydides Trap, build a community with a shared future for the whole mankind, and lead the world to a new development path which is steady, far-reaching and can guarantee sustainable security, sustainable innovation and development.