跨境资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响研究——基于系统性风险视角的分析

THE IMPACT OF CROSS-BORDER CAPITAL ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY——From the Perspective of Systemic Risk

日益频繁的跨境资本流动势必引发系统性风险,进而对货币政策有效性造成冲击,严重威胁我国的经济金融稳定。本文构建四部门DSGE模型并利用脉冲响应函数及模拟技术检验跨境资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响。研究发现,跨境资本流动加速了我国系统性风险累积过程,价格型与数量型货币政策的有效性均受到削弱。因此,随着我国经济国际化进程的不断加深,仅仅依靠传统货币政策已经无法有效应对系统性风险,需要采取更多样的措施。

With economic globalization, increasing cross-border capital flows have undoubtedly trig gered system risk, which has profoundly influenced the effectiveness of monetary policy and even threat ened the stability of China's economy and finance. Based on the theoretical analysis of the process how sys temic risk is caused by cross-border capital flows, this paper constructs a four-sector DSGE model to eval uate the impact. The impulse response function and the correlation test proves the process, the price effect and output effect evaluates the degree and related suggestion is given as well.