经济周期视角下的中国财政支出乘数研究

A Study of China’s Fiscal Expenditure Multiplier in the Light of Economic Cycles

系统考察财政支出乘数及其伴随经济发展周期的演化特征,是科学评估政府财政支出效果的基本前提,是合理制定和有效执行“精准”财政政策的重要基础,有助于新时代经济金融风险监管体系和现代财政制度的加快建立。克服已有模型局限,将经济周期特征纳入中国财政支出乘数问题研究框架,系统测算中国财政支出乘数,并着重定量考察财政支出乘数与经济周期的关系,研究发现:中国财政支出乘数高于欠发达国家和地区,但与世界主要发达经济体还存在一定的差距;财政支出乘数具有比较明显的逆周期特征,经济低迷时期财政支出乘数是经济繁荣期的2.3倍;1998年亚洲金融危机与2008年国际金融危机期间的财政支出乘数显著高于其他时期。财政刺激政策出台的时机至关重要,为提升财政支出效果,应在危机冲击发生后较为及时地推出财政支出政策。

A systematic examination of the fiscal expenditure multiplier and the way it evolves in the course of the economic cycle is the fundamental premise for a scientific evaluation of the effect of government fiscal expenditure and an important basis for the rational formulation and effective implementation of“precise”fiscal policy.This will contribute to a regulatory system for economic and financial risk in the new era and to the accelerated establishment of a modern fiscal system.Our research overcomes the limitations of existing models,incorporates the features of economic cycles into the framework of research on the issue of China’s fiscal expenditure multiplier,systematically measures China's fiscal expenditure multiplier,and stresses the quantitative examination of the relationship between fiscal expenditure multipliers and the economic cycle.Our findings show that China has a larger fiscal expenditure multiplier than less developed countries and regions but is still some distance away from the world’s major developed economies.Chinese fiscal expenditure multiplier has relatively clear countercyclical characteristics;during the economic downturn,it was 2.3 times larger than during the boom,and it was significantly larger during the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 international financial crisis than at other periods.The timing of the presentation of fiscal stimulus policies is crucial;to improve the effect of fiscal expenditure,fiscal expenditure policies should be introduced promptly as soon as the crisis occurs.