一种策略博弈式DSGE模型的设计及其应用

Solution of Strategy Game Model in DSGE Framwork and its Applications

将政策博弈问题置入动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),形成新的动态分析方法。研究方法:在DSGE中引入策略博弈,求解合作均衡、纳什均衡下的均衡问题。在应用时用“补偿方差”微观指标进行福利评价。研究发现:在研究政策主体的规则博弈时,含有策略博弈的DSGE模型更具有优势。政府部门和监管机构需较多地协调、合作,促进决策部门对其他目标的认识,避免在战略互动中潜在的福利损失。研究创新:利用非线性结构方程和决策者的非线性目标函数求解一般均衡系统的优化问题。在应用时通过策略博弈方法分析财政部门和中央银行的协作与冲突。研究价值:为中国财政-货币政策的协调配合及其具体的配合内容提供决策参考。

Research Objectives: This paper incorporates policy rules’ game into dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelResearch Methods: The strategy game is introduced into DSGE to solve the economic effects of cooperative equilibrium and Nash equilibriumThe compensated variance is used to evaluate the welfare when applying this methodResearch Findings: DSGE model with strategy game has more advantages when studying the rule game of policy subjectsThe economy requires more coordination and cooperation between government departments and regulatory bodies, so as to promote decision-making departments’understanding of other objectives and avoid potential welfare losses in strategic interactionResearch Innovations: Using the nonlinear structural equation of the model and the nonlinear objective function of the decision maker, the optimization problem of the general equilibrium system is solvedWith this method, the cooperation and conflict between the fiscal authorities and the Central Bank are analyzed by the strategy game methodResearch Value: The framework can provide decision-making reference for the cooperation and coordination of China's fiscal and monetary policy.